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تحليل اقتصادي لأثر الظروف المناخية على إنتاجية محاصيل المانجو في مصر باستخدام نماذج البيانات
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الملخص: Horizontal agricultural expansion is one of the most important pillars of
the national economy in Egypt, so the country makes strenuous efforts
to make optimal use of agricultural resources, and despite these efforts,
the climate prevents it
.Recently, global warming has increased and
climate change is expected to worsen the frequency, intensity, and
impacts of some types of extreme weather events that affected mango
productivity during the last years, which led to a decrease in
productivity by about 37%, with a value of financial losses amounting
to 4.8 billion pounds in 2021.Therefore, the research aims to estimate
the impact of extreme weather on mango productivity during the last
three years (2021-2019) at four studied governorates representing 75%
of the total area of mango in Egypt. The Fixed Effect Cross of Panel
Data Model was adopted as the appropriate model, to illustrate the
impact of the phenomena on the productivity of mangoes. The results
show that there is a statistical significance and a negative effect for both
the minimum and maximum temperatures, as productivity decreases by
about 1.05%, and 1.79% with an increase in each of the minimum and
maximum temperatures by 1%, respectively. The negative impact has
been shown on the governorates of Buhaira and Ismailia. Also, the
individual effect was studied for each month,it was found that there was
a statistically significant negative effect of the minimum and maximum
temperatures for the months of flowering and fruiting.
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| سنة النشر |
2023
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| صفحات |
351-360
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| أسم المركز |
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| اسم الجريدة |
International Journal of Advanced Research (IJAR)
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| موقع الانترنت |
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| مؤلفين من مركز البحوث الزراعية |
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| نوع المنشور |
دورية
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