Increase The Efficiency Of the estimated Relationship between National Income and the Value of Egyptian total Exports
Abstract: One of the most prominent errors that occur when studying and analyzing time series is the problem of autocorrelation between residuals as an important regression problem. This means that the estimated value of the error in a given time period is correlated with the estimated value of the error in a previous time period. When studying economic time series involves a first-order autocorrelation more than a second-degree, although it is possible that there is a negative autocorrelation that results in a error in estimated which greatly affects the results obtained and the recommendations based on them.
Therefore, the research aims to study the nature of the problem of autocorrelation between residuals, its causes and effects, when studying the relationship between the value of total exports and gross national income during the period (1990 - 2017) and then apply the most important methods of detecting autocorrelation in the data to remedy this problem and finding statistical estimators with high efficiency and tested statistically after getting rid of this problem with clarification of different statistical remedy methods.
Autocorrelation is due to several reasons including: extended effects of time series data, omission of some independent variables, data processing, mis-determinating of the mathematical form of the model. Autocorrelation is detected using several methods and tests such as: graph method, Durban Watson test, Durban statistic test (B), BG test Breusch-Godfrey, "Box-Pierce-Ljung Test", can also remedy the problem of autocorrelation in several ways, including: transform method, the generalized difference method, the first difference method, the lag of the dependent variable method.
Publication year 2020
Organization Name
serial title المجلة المصرية للبحوث الزراعية، الجمعية المصرية للاقتصاد الزراعى
Author(s) from ARC
Publication Type Journal
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