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An Economic Analysis of the Current and Future Demand
for Animal Products in Egypt
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Abstract: ــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــ
• Egyptian Journal of Agricultural Economics, Egyptian Association of Agricultural Economics, Vol.(18), No.(4), Cairo, Egypt, December 2008.
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The study of the current and future demand for food commodities in general and animal products, in particular, is considered as one of the important studies that contribute to the production and trade of goods policy-making on according to an appropriate base. However, a high per capita of animal protein reflects the nation's high standard of living besides a high standard of health and nutrition.
This study aims at identifying the current status of production and consumption of animal products in Egypt besides shedding light on the future demand for animal products in Egypt, moreover suggesting approaches to narrow the gap between the production and consumption of food animal products in Egypt. The current study used the descriptive and analytical tools to achieve its goals i.e. the time-trend model and the demand forecast model.
The results of the current study showed that Egypt's production of red meat has reached an average of about 675 thousand tons/year during the period (1991- 2006), indicating an increasing annual trend of about 4.2%. Moreover, the average per capita of red meat for that period is estimated at 10.4 kg/year, indicating an increasing annual trend of about 2.1%. On the other hand, the average gap between the production and consumption of red meat for that period is estimated at 211 thousand tons/year, reflecting a self-sufficiency ratio (SSR) of about 76%.
Besides, the results showed that Egypt's production of white meat has reached an average of about 655 thousand tons/year during the period (1991- 2006), indicating an increasing annual trend of about 8.3%. Moreover, the average per capita of white meat for that period is estimated at 8.3 kg/year, indicating an increasing annual trend of about 6.3%. On the other hand, the equality between the production and consumption of white meat during that period reflects a self-sufficiency ratio of about 100%.
Nevertheless, the results showed that Egypt's fish production has reached an average of about 613 thousand tons/year during the period (1991- 2006), indicating an increasing annual trend of about 7.6%. Moreover, the average per capita of fish for that period is estimated at 10.5 kg/year, indicating an increasing annual trend of about 4.3%. On the other hand, the average gap between the production and consumption of fish for that period is estimated at 148 thousand tons/year, reflecting a self-sufficiency ratio of about 80.6%.
Furthermore, the results showed that Egypt's milk production has reached an average of about 3,684 thousand tons/year during the period (1991- 2006), indicating an increasing annual trend of about 6.5%. Moreover, the average per capita of milk for that period is estimated at 75.9 kg/year, indicating an increasing annual trend of about 2.7%. On the other hand, the average gap between the production and consumption of milk for that period is estimated at 1.151 million tons/year, reflecting a self-sufficiency ratio of about 76.2%.
In addition, the results showed that Egypt's production of table eggs has reached an average of about 229 thousand tons/year during the period (1991- 2006), indicating an increasing annual trend of about 4.3%. Moreover, the average per capita of table eggs for that period is estimated at 3 kg/year, indicating an increasing annual trend of about 1.6%. On the other hand, the equality between the production and consumption of table eggs during that period reflects a self-sufficiency ratio of about 100%.
The estimates for supply and demand forecast expect the gap between the production and consumption of food animal products to continue until the year 2012, reaching about 499.6 thousand tons of red meat, 693.6 thousand tons of fish, 1.414 million tons of milk, and 118.5 thousand tons of table eggs. On the other hand, the estimates except a surplus of about 73.2 thousand tons for white meat until the year 2012. Thus, the results forecast the self-sufficiency rate of animal products until 2012 to reach about 67.8% for red meat, 105.6% for white meat, 64.3% for fish, 83% for milk, and 61.6% for table eggs.
In light of these findings, the current study suggests to narrow the gap between the production and consumption of food animal products through developing livestock production by means of the expansion of animal husbandry strains of high meat and milk productivity, expanding livestock vaccination against diseases, re-activating the agricultural extension, providing vaccines and immunization for poultry periodically to avoid an outbreak of avian influenza, and encouraging investments in fish farming to increase domestic production of fish and narrow the gap and raise the proportion of self-sufficiency of fish.
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| URL |
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| Publication year |
2008
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| Availability location |
مكتبة معهد بحوث الاقتصاد الزراعي-7 ش نادى الصيد - مبنى الهيئات والشركات - الدقي- الجيزة (الدور الرابع)
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| Availability number |
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| Organization Name |
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| City |
القاهرة
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| serial title |
المجلة المصرية للاقتصاد الزراعي
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| Author(s) from ARC |
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| Publication Type |
Journal
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