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Economic Analysis for The Growth or Deterioration Sources of Egyptian Exports of Agricultural Goods
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Abstract:
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• Egyptian Journal of Agricultural Economics, Egyptian Association of Agricultural Economics, Vol.(26), NO (2-B), June 2019.
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The main purpose of this research is to investigate the component factors of change in Egypt’s exports from 2008 to 2015and the variations of its export competitiveness, with a view to providing information to exporting companies and government authorities for reference in their respective elaboration of general strategies or policies for the future. The CMS (Constant Market Share) model will be used to evaluate Egypt’s performance in trade, i.e. through the use of various base periods to calculate multiple CMS values, and for the selection of effective competitors, appropriate for each type of exporters, as an influence effect for the whole market, the factors of variation in Taiwan’s exports from 2008 to 2015 will be calculated on a yearly basis, and “trade effect”, “commodity effect”, “market effect” and “competitiveness effect” will be obtained.
Results: As for geographical market distribution, the research showed that EU countries absorbs about 23.8% of total agricultural exports, the Arab Countries come next with about 44.7% of total agricultural exports. The The research noticed that the geographical concentration coefficient according to Gini-Hirschman coefficient during the period 2008-2015 was about 47.8, while that for commodity was 26.49. This means that agricultural exports are concentrated in terms of location. It is noticed that a yearly increase in the value of agricultural exports during the period 2008-2015. The results of Instability Coefficients revealed that, the instability in the exported quantities was greater than the exportation prices for 16 commodities, such as fresh oranges (8.2, 5.3), rice (63, 5.7), and fresh bean (11.5, 8.3). On the reverse, the instability in the exportation prices was greater than the exported quantities for 4 commodities, such as strawberries fresh (18.9, 24), and tomatoes (8.2, 27.3).
The results of the Constant Market Share (CMS) analysis determined the total gain in the market shares of the Egyptian agricultural exports by about $ 911 million during the period (2012-2015) compared to the period (2008-2011). The commodity diversity (85%), the geographic distribution (88%) and the growth of the international market size (-99%) negatively effect of that gain. While, the remainder competitive factors (26%) have positive effects. The Recommendations: (1) We finally suggest that in the future researchers carry out analyses via the CMS model on more detailed commodity categories so as to gain further understanding of the variations in the export competitiveness of each. (2) Egypt’s endeavors should be centered on enhancing the quality of Egypt’s products, continuously obtaining export shares from more advanced countries, strengthening Egypt’s export competitiveness, and responding to changes in the global economic environment by adapting the commodities it exports.
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| Publication year |
2016
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| Pages |
1245 - 1260
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مكتبة معهد بحوث الاقتصاد الزراعي-7 ش نادى الصيد - مبنى الهيئات والشركات - الدقي- الجيزة (الدور الرابع)
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| Organization Name |
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الجيزة
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| serial title |
المجلة المصرية للاقتصاد الزراعي
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| Author(s) from ARC |
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| Publication Type |
Journal
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