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Standard Economic Analysis of Sugar Imports Using the Instantaneous Model
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Abstract: ـــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــ
• Egyptian Journal of Agricultural Economics, Egyptian Association of Agricultural Economics, Vol.(28), No. (3), September 2018.
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The Sugar is a strategic commodity in most countries of the world, including Egypt. The total global sugar production reached about 170.8 million tons. Egypt produces an estimated 2.3 million tons, estimated at 1.3% of the world's production, And imports about 1.6 million tons for 2016/2017.
The research aims to study the most important factors affecting Egyptian imports of sugar, the study of the trade balance of sugar and knowledge of the extent influenced by some contemporary variables.
The most important results of the study:
- The results of the research showed that the decrease in the real consumer price by LE / ton leads to an increase in consumption by about 0.049 thousand tons per year.
- It was found that increasing the quantity consumed by about 1000 tons annually leads to an increase in production Not statistically significant increase, and that the increase in the production of sugar beets yield in tons leads to increase the production of sugar by about 0.057 thousand tons and the increase of the real producer price in the previous year is one pound per ton followed by an increase in sugar production Estimated at 1.25 thousand tons.
- The results showed a statistically significant inverse relationship between the production of local sugar and sugar cane production, It was found that the decrease of sugar cane production by one ton leads to an increase in the quantity of sugar production by an annual rate of about 0.064 thousand tons annually. The results showed that there is an inverse relationship between the quantity of sugar production and the quantity of imports.
- The results showed that there is an inverse correlation with economic logic and a statistically significant correlation between the quantity of sugar imports and the import price. It was found that when the import price of sugar / ton decreases, the quantity of sugar imports increases to 0.185 thousand tons annually. While there was an inverse relationship between the quantity and the sugar and the exchange rate, it turned out that the low exchange rate of LE / $ leads to increase sugar imports 11.3 thousand tons.
Recommendations:
1- Planning to increase the stock of sugar during the year periods evenly to bring about a balance in the price and consumption of sugar.
2- Continuation of the Government's policy to increase the cultivated areas of sugar beet and to establish the factories needed to absorb the quantities produced from it.
3- Working to reduce sugar imports while benefiting from increasing production by operating idle capacities and increasing the efficiency of factories operation.
4- It is suggested that the Ministry of Supply should study the quantities needed by the Egyptian market to compensate for the gap during the year and to import them at once during the period of decline in international prices and storage and organizing the supply during the year to avoid periods of rising world prices and reducing the value of imports.
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| URL |
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| Publication year |
2018
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| Pages |
1411 - 1424
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| Availability location |
مكتبة معهد بحوث الاقتصاد الزراعى- الدقى- 7 شارع نادى اللصيد - مبنى الهيئات والشركات (الدور الرابع)
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| Availability number |
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| Organization Name |
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| City |
الجيزة
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| serial title |
المجلة المصرية للإقتصاد الزراعي
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| Author(s) from ARC |
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| External authors (outside ARC) |
طاهر محمد سعيد
مركز البحوث الزراعية- المعمل المركزي لتحليل متبقيات المبيدات والعناصر الثقيلة فى الأغذية
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| Publication Type |
Journal
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