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ANALYTICAL STUDY OF WHEAT RESPONSE TO PRICE CHANGES IN EGYPT
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Abstract: _______________________________________________________________________________________________
Journal of Agricultural Economics and Social Sciences, Mansoura University, Vol.( 8), No.(12), December 2017.
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Wheat is the most important strategic commodity, where its availability leads to political, economic and social stability. So, the Egyptian state pays great attention to increasing production and reducing the gap between production, which reach to 8.472 million metric tons and consumption which reach to19.040 million metric tons as the average during the period (2013-2016) to reduce imports, which constitute burden on the Egyptian trade balance under the decline in the value of the local currency and its reflection on the prices of imported food commodities.
The main problem of the resaerch is that Egypt suffers from a shortage of local production to meet the needs of the population and the increasing in the gap, which amounted to about 10.568 million metric tons-Which represents about 6.57%of world imports and self-sufficiency rates amounted to about 44.5% as an average period (2013-2016).
The present paper aims to: (a) Analyze the supply response of wheat during the period (1995-2015), which incorporating the risk )Rt(variable in the models structure. (b) The estimation the elasticity of supply in both the short and long run. (c) Identify the most important variables affecting the cultivated area of wheat by using” Model Marc Nerlove.
Wheat producers are concentrated in the category of holding less than 5 Feddan which constitute about 92% during the agricultural census 09/2010. That increasing in relative importance due to the inheritance laws, That have led to the increase in the fragmentation of holdings -which represents a financial risk, which reflected in the producers' response to the risks.
It is clear from the scenarios of farm price and net return of wheat under risk, that period of response amounted to about 1.77, 2.00 years. While the period for the models (4,5) reached about 1.21, 2.13 years for the variables of the competing crops..
This explains the impact of the risk, farm prices, costs and net revenue for crop or competing crops on the change in wheat production, in guiding price policy and its reflection on the producer's decision by choosing between its choices to grow the wheat or other crops as well as the expansion of area, and the previous variables can be played a role in guiding and formulating the appropriate price policy.
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| URL |
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| Publication year |
2017
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| Pages |
879 - 906
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| Availability location |
مكتبة كلية الزراعة، جامعة المنصورة
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| Availability number |
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| Organization Name |
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| City |
الدقهلية
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| serial title |
مجلة الاقتصاد الزراعي والعلوم الاجتماعية
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| Author(s) from ARC |
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| Publication Type |
Journal
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