|
|
Estimating the Agricultural Saving Gap Using The Tow-Gap Model
|
|
Abstract: ________________________________________________________________________________________________
• Egyptian Journal of Agriculture, Agricultural Research Centre (ARC), Ministry of Agriculture and Land Reclamation (MLAR), Vol (95), No (3), 2017.
________________________________________________________________________________________________
In spite of the material and human characteristics of the Egyptian agricultural sector, which makes it the main cornerstone for achieving sustainable development and pushing the national economy towards stability and progress, it suffers greatly from structural imbalance and distortion, which is clearly demonstrated by a number of indicators, including low capital accumulation, The economic growth of the sector, the high rate of unemployment, the growing deficit in the agricultural trade balance from year to year, in addition to the decline in the rates of savings within the sector, ie, the failure of agricultural savings to finance agricultural investment requirements.
The study aimed at examining the structure of the Egyptian agricultural sector, estimating both the local resource gap and the agricultural external trade gap using a gaping model.
The research can be summarized as follows: The increase in the relative importance of agricultural saving to domestic saving has been shown to increase the number of domestic savings from about 11.4% in 1990/1991 to about 26% in 98/1999 in order to implement the structural reform and economic liberalization programs in the mid nineties. Agricultural savings function estimates indicate a positive correlation between the value of agricultural savings and agricultural income, total agricultural investment in the previous year, interest rate and short-term agricultural loans in the previous year. It was found that the foreign trade gap is larger than the domestic resource gap, but rather the gap in the Egyptian agricultural saving. Which means dependence on foreign capital to cover this biggest gap.
Therefore, it is recommended to develop a package of reform policies for the Egyptian agricultural sector consistent with the development goals of the state and with its macroeconomic policies to allow the following: • Increase real agricultural output, thereby increasing the real savings within the agricultural sector resulting from effective demand within the agricultural economizer, not saving for the purpose of fear of economic conditions. • The need to rationalize the import of agricultural and consumer goods and food. • Activation of the mechanisms of the price market to reduce the sharp rise in prices, which in turn affected the agricultural sector in the form of a rise in the prices of inputs and then the final product, ie, the reduction of the reflection of the effects of general inflation in the national economy, which led to a real inflation in the agricultural sector.
________________________________________________________________________________________________
|
| URL |
|
| Publication year |
2017
|
| Availability location |
مكتبة معهد بحوث الاقتصاد الزراعي-7 ش نادى الصيد - مبنى الهيئات والشركات - الدقي- الجيزة (الدور الرابع)
|
| Availability number |
|
| Organization Name |
|
| City |
الجيزة
|
| serial title |
المجلة المصرية للبحوث الزراعية
|
| Web Page |
|
| Author(s) from ARC |
|
| Publication Type |
Journal
|