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Simultaneous Equations Econometric Model of The Egyptian Imports Edible Oils
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Abstract: __________________________________________________________________________________________________
• Egyptian Journal of Agriculture, Agricultural Research Centre (ARC), Ministry of Agriculture and Land Reclamation (MLAR), Vol.(93), No.(2), 2015.
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Edible oils in Egypt are considered one of important strategies commodity .consumption of such commodities are increasing as a result of the continuing increase in population and the change in consumption type of edible oil . Thers, recent years have witnessed on increase in the demand of edible oils .on the other hands ,local production of such commodity has decreased due to the decrease in the area cultivated edible oils crops. Consequently the government had to import edible oils to lowing the gap between local production and consumption the value of imports of edible oils has increased from $ 64.4 million, representing about 3.7% of the total agricultural imports and was estimated 138.5 million dollars in 2001/2002 to $ 1.15 billion in 2013/2014 representing about 22.5% of the total agricultural imports and estimated at 5.14 billion dollars in 2013/2014 . Such import represent a burden on the Egyptian balance of payment . The present study aims to examining the important factors affecting imports of edible oils to minimize the quantity of edible oil imports. To achieve this we used simultaneous equations in the construction of an economic model to analyze the structure of Egyptian imports edible oils The results showed a statistically significant positive correlation between the amount of imports of oils and real gross domestic product was found that the increase in real gross domestic product about one billion pounds a year increases the amount of oil imports by about 1.46 tons per year. As it turns out there is an inverse relationship between the amount of imports, and all of the exchange rate and the domestic production of seeds in the previous year, it was found that the depreciation of the exchange rate by pound / dollar increases the quantity of imports estimated at 133 000 tons, and domestic production of seeds decrease in year Former about tons leads to increased imports by the amount was about 1.01 tons per year has proved this moral decline.
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2015
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مكتبة معهد بحوث الاقتصاد الزراعي-7 ش نادى الصيد - مبنى الهيئات والشركات - الدقي- الجيزة (الدور الرابع)
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الجيزة
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| serial title |
المجلة المصرية للبحوث الزراعية
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Journal
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