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Econometric Study of Some Factors Affecting Production and Exports of Egyptian Rice
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Abstract: _______________________________________________________________________________________________
• M. Sc. In Agricultural Science (Agricultural Economics): Department Of Agricultural Economics, Faculty Of Agriculture, Assiut University, 2005.
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The nutritional cereals in general and the rice in specific is considered one of the most important sources of food in the world, as the area of cereals presents more than 2/3 of the agricultural area in the world. The international production of cereals now saves more than half of the human food consumption.
Recently the problem of food has increased due to unbalance between the national production and consumption for most of the main nutritional products, as the national production of these products became insufficient for the actual needs, especially with the rapid increase in population, which lead to increasing of food gap, decrease in the self sufficiency and increase in the import of these commodities, which makes increase the Egyptian exports one of the most important polices to improve this gap and facing the increasing needs for economic development of the society.
It is worthy to note, that it is impossible to achieve success without improving the recommended level for producing the field crops in general and the rice specifically to achieve the self sufficiency and increasing the excess available for exportation.
This study depended on the published secondary data collected from the official sources such as Central Agency for Public Mobilization And Statistics (CAPMAS), Ministry of Foreign Trade and data base of Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO). Also the study used some of the standard economic models as the general trends models and the external supply and demand functions in addition to mathematical models as linear programming to measuring both the present and the optimal distribution of the Egyptian exports of rice to obtain the most suitable economical situations for trade balance.
The general objective of this study is to estimate the desired level for rice production and how to verify this in Egypt. This task is done through some secondary objectives. The study is divided into four main parts:
The first part discussed the theoritical frame and review of literature in two chapters. The first chapter discussed the theoritical frame for some economic concepts that have direct relation with the present study, while the second chapter discussed the most important previous studies in literature, what they have done, and the different research methods used in these studies and their analysis, and how logic are these methods.
The second part discussed the productive and economic indicators of rice in the most important producing governorates in two chapters. The first one discussed specifically the productive and economic indicators of rice in Egypt. It is revealed an insignificant increase in the cultivated area of rice which has no statistical meaning, but the meaning of this increase became significant with respect to yield and the total production of rice crop. The second chapter discussed the productive indicators of rice crop in the most important producing governorates. It revealed an increase in cultivated area, the yield per feddan and the total production of rice in Dakahlia, Kafr El-Shikh, Shrkia, Behera and Gharbia governorates. Also, the study revealed a negative rank correlation coefficient between the area and the production in different producing governorates which is equal to (-0.5).
The third part: discussed a study to some economic indicators for rice crop in Egypt and the most important producing governorates in two chapters, the first one studied the costs of producing rice in Egypt. The study revealed that the amount of production that minimizing the total costs reached about 2.29, 1.50, 1.95, 2.6 and 2.48 tons/feddan in Dakahlia, Kafr El-Shikh, Sharkia, Behera and Gharbia governorates respectively. While it reached about 2.23 tons/feddan all over Egypt. Meanwhile, the amount of production that maximizing profit reached about 2.83, 2.50, 2.60, 2.72 and 2.76 tons/feddan for the same governorates respectively, while it reached about 2.75 tons/feddan all over Egypt. The second chapter studied some economic indicators of producing rice in Egypt. The study revealed that costs per feddan trended to increase in both current and fixed prices. Also, the study revealed that the average of current prices of the main product are increased, while the fixed prices are decreased. Results of total farm return analysis of rice showed an increase in both current and fixed prices. It was noticed that the net farm income increased in current prices, while decreased in fixed prices.
The fourth part of study discussed the Egyptian foreign trade of rice in two chapters. The first one deals with the main features of some export parameters of rice in Egypt. The study revealed that the local production of rice is the main factor affecting the export quantity of rice in Egypt. This factor is positively responsible of about 60% of changes in export quantity. The second chapter deals with the quantitative study of rice export distribution to foreign countries. The study suggested many alternatives concerning the optimal ways to distribute the Egyptian exports of rice.
Rice is one of most profitable crops in Egypt that can play a good role in improving the trade balance for Egyptian economy, specially if the state removes the distortion in the export system of commodities.
Lastly the study recommended:
1- Redistribution of the area cultivated with rice in the different governorates according to its productive efficiency and working continuously to improve the cultivated brands of rice.
2- Remove some of obstacle and tariffs between the Arab Countries to encourage these countries to import the Egyptian rice instead of far east countries and India.
3- To work on decreasing losses of rice either in its raw form or during its industrilization.
4- Applying the idea of the common Arab market.
5- Make attempts to rationalization of consumption on the per/capita level by reducing the national consumption of rice.
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| Publication year |
2005
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| Organization Name |
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| Country |
Egypt
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| Publisher |
Name:
كلية الزراعة - جامعة اسيوط
Place:
اسيوط - مصر
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| Author(s) from ARC |
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| Publication Type |
Master Thesis
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