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An Economic Study for Future of Food Gap in Egypt
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Abstract: _______________________________________________________________________________________________
• Ph. D. in Agricultural Science (Agricultural Economics), Department of Agricultural Economics, Faculty of Agriculture, Zagazig University, 2015.
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The problem 0f this study is the big shortage Of the local food production to meet the consumption needs for the human being. This leads to a big food Gap that Increases over time so agricultural economists try to estimates the size of this gap haping to find solution and policy to solve this problem, This study predictsthe size of the food gap up to 2022.in order to help the decision maker to decrease the differences between food production and food. Consumption and decrease the amount of food imports, The study has used both quantitative and analytical approaches represented by simple and multiple regression, coefficient of variation, ARIMA model for prediction and double logarithmic function .The study comprised three parts, the first one is the literature of review and previous studies, and the second one is the current situation for the food gap in Egypt whereas the third one is the future of the food gap in Egypt
- The results of the study:
- The prediction of the total food gap of the concerned five food groups in the future leads to the following results:
At year 2014, the gap will be 6.147 million ton, At year 2017, the gap will be 6.496 million ton, At year 2022, the gap will be 8.103 million ton, It means that this gap increases by 5.67%, 31.82% in years2017, 2022 with respect to the year 2014.
- the study has shown also the relative importance of the wheat food gap with respect to the total food gap, where it has revealed that at 2014 the wheat food gap will be 5.136 million ton at 2017 the wheat food gap will be 5.417 million ton, at 2022 the wheat food gap will be 5.668 million ton and those represent 83.55, 83,3 %, 69,94% from the total food gap in Egypt.
- The Recommendations of the study:
1- Rising the rates of annual Increases in food agricultural production either for the plant side or the animal side using both horizontal and vertical expansion.
2- Follow a balanced agricultural and price policy through the guarantee price for the strategic agricultural crops, A applying the best crop pattern that satisfy the objectives of both the farmers and the economy.
3-Controlling the consumption of the food groups and commodities in general and the subsidized food commodities specifically and encourage savings and investment.
4- Reforming the quantitative subsidy policy where it encourages more consumption and finding the black markets, The importance of agricultural manufacturing where manufacturing satisfy the balance between supply and demand and limits the changes and distortions in prices. It also decreases the loss in food agricultural products.
5- Encouraging investment in agricultural wastes to obtain forages and overcome the forages gap, Governmental and rural organizations and institutions must be an effective role to raise the productions performance efficiency to the agricultural sectors.
6- Providing a base of perfect information to serve the field of production, marketing, consumption, exports and imports to the agricultural and food commodities.
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| Publication year |
2015
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| Availability location |
مكتبة معهد بحوث الاقتصاد الزراعي-7 ش نادى الصيد - مبنى الهيئات والشركات - الدقي- الجيزة (الدور الرابع)
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| Availability number |
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| Organization Name |
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| Country |
Egypt
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| Publisher |
Name:
كلية الزراعة - جامعة الزقازيق
Place:
الزقازيق - الشرقية - مصر
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| Author(s) from ARC |
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| Publication Type |
PhD Thesis
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