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Effect of International Trade Liberalization on the Egyptian Agricultural Imports
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Abstract: ________________________________________________________________________________________________
• Ph. D. in Agricultural Science (Agricultural Economics), Department of Agricultural Economics, Faculty of Agriculture, Ain Shams University, 2005.
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The study investigates the problem of the increased gap between domestic production and consumption of many agricultural commodities, especially the consumable ones, which is covered by imports that require plenty of hard currencies, resulting in an increased burden on the balance of trade due to the increased value of agricultural imports as a result of abolishing the direct subsidies to agricultural production in the WTO member countries, which resulted in higher prices of domestic agricultural products. The study aims at identifying the impact of international trade liberalization on Egypt's imports of agricultural products in an attempt to predict the possibility of reducing these imports.
The study findings revealed that the total value of Egyptian imports and exports have been increasing at annual rates that reached 8.3% and 9.9% respectively during the period 1987-2003. It also revealed that the liberalization of exchange rate had no impact on the most important variables affecting the Balance of Trade. However, it has positively affected the total value of exports. Moreover, the implementation of the GATT was found to be of positive impact on Egypt's balance of trade where the values of imports and exports increased by 125% and 133% respectively during the period 1995-2003, in which the GATT has been implemented (post-implementation period) compared to the pre-implementation period.
Furthermore, the study revealed that the share of agricultural imports in total imports has been increasing at an annual rate of 20.8, while the share of agricultural exports in the total exports has been fluctuating around 15%. In addition, it revealed that the deficit in the balance of trade has been increasing at an annual rate of 10.4% during the period 1987-2003. The study also found that the liberalization of exchange rate has positively influenced each of the value of agricultural exports, the coverage rate of agricultural imports by agricultural exports, and the average propensity to import. However, the deficit in the balance of agricultural trade during the post-implementation period has increased by 172% compared to the pre-implementation period.
The study measured the gap between domestic production and consumption of the main imported crops, which involved wheat and wheat flour, yellow maize, red meat, vegetable oils, and sugar during the period 1987-2003. It was found that the size this gap has been shrinking for wheat, yellow maize, red meat, and sugar, while fluctuated in case of vegetable oils. Through investigating the most important variables affecting the production and consumption of these crops, the study predicted the possibility of achieving self-sufficiency rates of 60%, 4%, 80.8%, 16.6%, and 87.2% for the previously mentioned crops respectively by the year 2020.
Studying the most important factors affecting the imports of the studied crops during the period 1987-2003 revealed that the import price is the main variable affecting wheat imports, and that there were other non-economic factors of greater impacts on wheat imports. The study also found the import price is the main variable affecting yellow maize imports too. As regards the main variables affecting red meat imports are its domestic production and consumption, while those affecting vegetable oil imports are the domestic consumption and the exchange rate. In case of sugar, the main variables affecting its imports included its import price, domestic consumption, and the exchange rate.
The study also investigated the impact of the liberalization of exchange rate and found that it had no significant impact on the value of imports of wheat, red meat, and sunflower oil, while had positive impact on the value of imports of yellow maize and soybean oil.
The GATT was found to be of no influence on either the volume of wheat imports, or the market share in the world imports of this commodity. However, it was found to have a positive impact on both the value of wheat imports and its world price, the implementation of the GATT was found to have a negative impact on the volume and value of imports and share in world market of wheat flour. The implementing of the GATT was found to be of positive impacts on the volume and value of imports and the share in world market of yellow maize imports. However, its implementation resulted in increasing the world import price of yellow maize.
As regards red meat imports, the GATT implementation was found to have no impact, but has positively affected its value and the world price, while negatively affected the share in the world market of red meat. The implementing of the GATT was found be of positive impacts on the volume and value of imports, the share in world market, and the world prices of soybean oil, while was fond to be of negative impact on the rate of growth in the value of these imports. However the GATT implementation was found to have no impact on sunflower oil imports, but was fond to have positive impact on the import price and value of its imports, and was fond to have a negative impact on the share in the world market of sunflower oil imports. For sugar, the implementing of the GATT was found to have positive impacts on its share in the world market of raw sugar imports, and the price and value of imports of refined sugar, but was found to have negative impacts on share in the world market of refined sugar imports.
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| Publication year |
2005
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| Availability location |
مكتبة معهد بحوث الاقتصاد الزراعي-7 ش نادى الصيد - مبنى الهيئات والشركات - الدقي- الجيزة (الدور الرابع)
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| Availability number |
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| Organization Name |
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| Country |
Egypt
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| Author(s) from ARC |
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| Agris Categories |
International trade
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AGROVOC
TERMS |
Balance of payments.
Exchange rate.
Imports.
International trade.
Terms of trade.
Trade agreements.
Trade policies.
WTO.
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| Proposed Agrovoc |
الاتفاقية العامة للتعريفات والتجارة (GAAT);النصيب السوقي (Market Share);الميل المتوسط للواردات (Average Propensity to Import);الميل الحدي للواردات (Marginal Propensity to Import);
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| Publication Type |
PhD Thesis
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