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An Economic Study for Present and Future International Food Crisis on Foreign Trade for Egyptian Agriculture
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Abstract: ________________________________________________________________________________________________
• Ph. D. in Agricultural Science (Agricultural Economics): Department of Agricultural Economics, Faculty of Agriculture, Ain Shams University, 2013.
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The study targeted mainly study the reality and the future of the global food crisis on the Egyptian agricultural foreign trade through the Historical analysis of the global food crisis and its causes and implications, the study of Indicators the global food crisis in the light of the global supply of cereals, the study of Indicators the global food crisis in the global demand for cereals, the study of the current situation and the expected prices of food cereals, the study of the impact of ethanol production on the availability of cereals , the econometric analysis of the impact of ethanol production and the food crisis on the global grain market, study the impact of the food crisis on the Egyptian agricultural foreign trade.
Achieve the objectives of the study included Six Chapters in addition to an introduction, First Chapter deals with review of literature and theoretical Framework. And Second Chapter of the historical analysis of the global food crisis and through the study of the reality of the global food crisis (1972-1974), (2006-2008), and the causes and statistical analysis of the severity of the crisis, and their implications. While ensuring Third Chapter indicators of the global food crisis in the light of the global supply of Cereals by examining the current situation and expected the global supply of Cereals, wheat, corn and rice separately. Fourth Chapter included indicators the global food crisis in the light of the global demand for Cereals through the study of the global demand for Cereals, wheat, maize and rice separately, as well as the study of the current situation and the expected prices of food Cereals and study the impact of ethanol production on the availability of Cereals. Chapter Five has addressed the economic analysis of the impact of ethanol production and the food crisis on the world Cereals market through a standard economic model during the period (2001-2012) and then to predict the internal variables of the model during the period (2013-2017), as well as the standard models to estimate the impact of the food crisis on markets World wheat, corn, and rice separately and forecasting variables interior during the period (2013-2017), while ensuring Chapter Six impact of the food crisis on foreign trade Egyptian Agricultural present and future through the study of the impact of the food crisis on the structure of the balance of trade and balance of agricultural and balance of food the Egyptian pre-crisis period (2001-2006) and post-crisis period (2007-2012) and the total period using sham variables and test Chow Test, then study the current situation and is expected to Egyptian Foreign Agricultural Trade of the most important crops of the crisis.
The study examined the present situation of global wheat market under food crisis and the increasing demand for wheat for the purpose of producing ethanol using an econometric model containing variables that affect world wheat market. These were total supply of wheat, demand for wheat, total wheat export, total wheat imports and the real price during the period 2001-2012.
The study showed the important of use of the econometric model to include all variables as it have mutual effects on each others. The results show that when the real prices of global maize increase by 1%, the demand for wheat will increase by 1.04%. On the other hand, when world storage of wheat increase by about 1%, total supply of world wheat will increase by 0.24% and import will decrease by about 1% while real price will decrease by 0.5%.
The study shows also that when populations increase by about 1%, demand for wheat will increased by about 0.7%. It has also shown that when world demand for wheat increase by 1%, the imports will increased by 1.8%, while world imports will increase by 1% and exports will increased by 1.2%. it is possible, therefore, to dotes mine the decrease in real wheat price massing increase in world production and the size of wheat storage.
Expected supply as wheat world supply shows that it increases by about 0.35 million ton during the period 2013-2017. Expected demand for world wheat will also increase at 133.3 million ton a year during the above period. At will saech minimum, 2471.9 million ton in 2013 and its maximum 3005 million ton in 2017.
As for future wheat exports, the study show that it will increase by about 2.8 million ton during the period 2013-2017. Import on the other hand will also increase by 3.12 million ton in the same period real wheat price will also increase by $7.2.
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| Publication year |
2013
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| Availability location |
مكتبة معهد بحوث الاقتصاد الزراعي-7 ش نادى الصيد - مبنى الهيئات والشركات - الدقي- الجيزة (الدور الرابع)
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| Organization Name |
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| Author(s) from ARC |
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| Agris Categories |
Consumer economicsInternational trade
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AGROVOC
TERMS |
Econometric models.
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| Proposed Agrovoc |
أزمة الغذاء العالمية (Global Food Crisis);مؤشر أسعار الغذاء (Food Price index);إنتاج الإيثانول (Ethanol Production);التغيرات الدورية (Cyclical Changes);التجارة الخارجية الزراعية (Foreign Agricultural Trade);الميزان التجارى الزراعى (Agricultural Trade Balance);
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| Publication Type |
PhD Thesis
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