Abstract: ________________________________________________________________________________________________
• Egyptian Journal of Agricultural Economics, Egyptian Association of Agricultural Economics, Vol.(24), No.(4), Cairo, Egypt,December 2014.
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Red meat, white meat and fish are the main source of animal protein. Despite the diversity of animal protein sources, but Egypt faces a gap of animal protein. Hence, the development of animal and fish production is one of the main goals of the Egyptian Sustainable Agricultural Development Strategy towards 2030 (SADS). Thus, the problem of the current study is present in an attempt to answer two questions namely; what are the determinants of domestic demand on red meat, white meat and fish? and is it possible to cover domestic future needs and demand on red meat, white meat and fish through the domestic production? Consequently, the objectives of this study are mainly concerned with analyzing the current situation of the domestic demand on red meat, white meat and fish, measuring the impact of factors affecting the domestic demand of these commodities as well as, predicting the future domestic demand on these commodities, and reaching some recommendations for narrowing the food gap of these commodities.
The results of the current study revealed that the annual total production of red meat increased by about 2.4% during the period (1995-2012). However, the annual Egyptian quantity and value of red meat imports increased by about 9.2% and 15.2%, respectively. Besides, the annual total consumption of red meat increased by about 2.4%, resulting in increasing the food gap of red meat increased by about 2.5% annually. However, the per capita of red meat and the self-sufficiency ratio (SSR) of red meat fluctuated around 14.6 Kg and 78.9% on average, respectively. On the other hand, the annual total production of white meat increased by about 3.8% during the same period. Nevertheless, Egypt started importing white meat since 2006. The annual Egyptian quantity of white meat imports reached about 10 thousand ton in 2006 as compared to about 111 thousand ton in 2012. Besides, the annual total consumption of white meat increased by about 4% and the per capita of white meat fluctuated around 9.3 kg/year on average. Thus, the annual food gap of white meat increased by about 8.7%, while the annual SSR of white meat decrease by 0.12%. Considering the annual total production of fish during the same period, the results showed an increase by about 6.4%. Nevertheless, the annual Egyptian quantity and value of fish imports increased by about 2.3% and 16.1%, respectively. Besides, the annual total consumption of fish and per capita increased by about 5.6% and 3.6%, respectively. Thus, the annual food gap of fish increased by about 2.0%.
On the other hand, the study examined the outlook for the domestic demand on red meat, white meat and fish in 2017/2018 through proposing three scenarios. The first scenario depended only on the population growth rate estimated at about 2.1% during the study period, while the second scenario depended on the values of elasticities of the Almost Ideal Demand System (AIDS) model, whereas the third scenario depended on using the Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model.
The results showed that increasing the population by about 1% during the study period results in an increase of demand on red meat, white meat and fish by about 2.9%, 1.1% and 2.7%, respectively. Besides, an increase of the national income by about 1% in the study period results in an increase of demand on red meat, white meat and fish by about 1.0%, 0.35% and 1.3%, respectively. The results of AIDS model revealed that increasing the retail price of red meat, white meat and fish by about 1% results in decreasing the individual demand on the three commodities by about 0.21%, 0.39% and 0.57%, respectively. Moreover, the results of cross elasticities emphasized the substitution relationship between white meat and fish in case of increasing the retail price of fish times more than the increase of the retail price of red meat and white meat is a good substitute for red meat and fish. The results of expenditure elasticity revealed that consumers can not buy adequate quantities of red meat and fish at the current prices whereas, they can buy adequate quantities of white meat at the current prices.
Based on the average results of the three scenarios, the total consumption of red meat is expected to reach about 1270 thousand tons in 2017/2018, representing an increase of about 19.3% higher than that attained in 2012. According to the average results of the three scenarios, the per capita of red meat is expected to reach about 14.2 kg/year in the same year, representing an increase of about 11.8% higher than that attained in 2012. The average results of the three scenarios revealed that the total consumption of white meat is expected to reach about 1294 thousand tons in 2017/2018, representing an increase of about 20.7% higher than that attained in 2012. Based on the average results of the three scenarios, the per capita of white meat is expected to reach about 14.3 kg/year in the same year, representing an increase of about 11.7% higher than that attained in 2012. As for the average results of the three scenarios foe fish, the results revealed that the total consumption of fish is expected to reach about 1877 thousand tons in 2017/2018, representing an increase of about 11.0% higher than that attained in 2012. Based on the average results of the three scenarios, the per capita of fish is expected to reach about 20.6 kg/year in the same year, representing an increase of about 2.4% higher than that attained in 2012. Accordingly, the study recommends re-considering the veal project with the aim of narrowing the gap of red meat; as well as the expansion of aquaculture to narrow the gap of fish; and the inclusion of animal products (e.g. red meat, white meat and fish) within food subsidy system to ensure supplying poor families with their nutritional needs of animal protein.
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