|
|
An Economic Study of alternatives For Realizing Egyptian Food Security
|
|
Abstract: ــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــ
• Mansoura Journal of Agricultural Economics and Social Sciences, Mansoura University, Vol.(8), No.(9), Mansoura, Egypt, September 2017.
ــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــ
Aims of the study;This study to focuses on: (1)The current situation of the main economic variables of wheat and maize crops,(2)The most important determinants of the food import gap.(3)Statistical estimate of the imports of all wheat and maize during of period studied (4)Analysis of the market structure of imports of study crops. (5)The possibility of achieving food safety of the crops of the study.
Results: (1) value of imports of wheat and maize reached 32.8L.E billion, estimated at 33.4% of the average value of agricultural imports for the period 2013-2015.(2)The main economic variables of wheat and maize crops in the trend towards increase during the period (2000-2015) were statistically significant, not proven to the agricultural price variables, the net yield for wheat, There was no significant change in the profitability of the pound for Maize during the same period(3)The quantities consumed, the gap and the self-sufficiency ratio are to increase for both wheat and maize during the period (2000-2015) and proved their statistical significance.
(4)The results of the statistical analysis of the relationship between the quantity of wheat imports (as a dependent variable) and the independent variables show the significance of the relation between the price of importing tons of pounds, the number of population per million people and their non-stability for the other variables not included in the models. of the changes in the quantity of wheat imports. The coefficients of these variables, which reflect the elasticity, show that the decrease in the import price per ton of wheat by 10%, imports increase by 4.18%; with a population increase of 10%, the amount of imports increased by 49%; The correlation between the quantity of imports of maize (as a dependent variable) and the import price, the quantity of consumption, and GDP as independent variables (explained); The increase in imports by 9.4%, the increase in the quantity of consumption by one million tons 10%, the amount of imports by 0.15%, and the increase of GDP by 10% imports increase by 7.7%; These results are in line with the economic and statistical logic. Thus, maize is considered to be highly effect to changes in consumption and prices, so the government is working to increase import large quantities to fill the consumer gap regardless of policies or other variables.(5)The expected scenarios for both the gap, the ratio of the elasticity ratio, and the ratio of dependence on imports for both wheat and maize are indicative of the continued gap in the consumption gap during the period studied and dependence on imports.
Recommendations
Based on the results obtained from the research and the results of the analysis of the expected values of food security indicators for both wheat and maize, the research recommends the need to increase the volume of production by increasing cultivated areas and the trend towards horizontal expansion, and encouraging farmers to determine an appropriate price close to the international price and an appropriate period before planting. And interest in supporting the research of the production of high-productivity and low-water-use products, as you work to reduce the loss of consumption by intervening indirectly, and rationalize consumption of different media methods.
ــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــ
|
| URL |
|
| Publication year |
2017
|
| Pages |
1187 : 1202
|
| Availability location |
مكتبة كلية الزراعة - جامعة المنصورة - المنصورة، الدقهلية، مصر
|
| Availability number |
|
| Organization Name |
|
| City |
الدقهلية
|
| serial title |
مجلة الاقتصاد الزراعي والعلوم الاجتماعية
|
| Web Page |
|
| Author(s) from ARC |
|
| External authors (outside ARC) |
جمال محمد عطية
معهد بحوث الاقتصاد الزراعي
|
| Publication Type |
Journal
|