PhD Thesis      [Total: 27 ]

An Economic Study for Present and Future International Food Crisis on Foreign Trade for Egyptian Agriculture

Mohamed Attala, 2013

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________________________________________________________________________________________________ • Ph. D. in Agricultural Science (Agricultural Economics): Department of Agricultural Economics, Faculty of Agriculture, Ain Shams University, 2013. ________________________________________________________________________________________________ The study targeted mainly study the reality and the future of the global food crisis on the Egyptian agricultural foreign trade through the Historical analysis of the global food crisis and its causes and implications, the study of Indicators the global food crisis in the light of the global supply of cereals, the study of Indicators the global food crisis in the global demand for cereals, the study of the current situation and the expected prices of food cereals, the study of the impact of ethanol production on the availability of cereals , the econometric analysis of the impact of ethanol production and the food crisis on the global grain market, study the impact of the food crisis on the Egyptian agricultural foreign trade. Achieve the objectives of the study included Six Chapters in addition to an introduction, First Chapter deals with review of literature and theoretical Framework. And Second Chapter of the historical analysis of the global food crisis and through the study of the reality of the global food crisis (1972-1974), (2006-2008), and the causes and statistical analysis of the severity of the crisis, and their implications. While ensuring Third Chapter indicators of the global food crisis in the light of the global supply of Cereals by examining the current situation and expected the global supply of Cereals, wheat, corn and rice separately. Fourth Chapter included indicators the global food crisis in the light of the global demand for Cereals through the study of the global demand for Cereals, wheat, maize and rice separately, as well as the study of the current situation and the expected prices of food Cereals and study the impact of ethanol production on the availability of Cereals. Chapter Five has addressed the economic analysis of the impact of ethanol production and the food crisis on the world Cereals market through a standard economic model during the period (2001-2012) and then to predict the internal variables of the model during the period (2013-2017), as well as the standard models to estimate the impact of the food crisis on markets World wheat, corn, and rice separately and forecasting variables interior during the period (2013-2017), while ensuring Chapter Six impact of the food crisis on foreign trade Egyptian Agricultural present and future through the study of the impact of the food crisis on the structure of the balance of trade and balance of agricultural and balance of food the Egyptian pre-crisis period (2001-2006) and post-crisis period (2007-2012) and the total period using sham variables and test Chow Test, then study the current situation and is expected to Egyptian Foreign Agricultural Trade of the most important crops of the crisis. The study examined the present situation of global wheat market under food crisis and the increasing demand for wheat for the purpose of producing ethanol using an econometric model containing variables that affect world wheat market. These were total supply of wheat, demand for wheat, total wheat export, total wheat imports and the real price during the period 2001-2012. The study showed the important of use of the econometric model to include all variables as it have mutual effects on each others. The results show that when the real prices of global maize increase by 1%, the demand for wheat will increase by 1.04%. On the other hand, when world storage of wheat increase by about 1%, total supply of world wheat will increase by 0.24% and import will decrease by about 1% while real price will decrease by 0.5%. The study shows also that when populations increase by about 1%, demand for wheat will increased by about 0.7%. It has also shown that when world demand for wheat increase by 1%, the imports will increased by 1.8%, while world imports will increase by 1% and exports will increased by 1.2%. it is possible, therefore, to dotes mine the decrease in real wheat price massing increase in world production and the size of wheat storage. Expected supply as wheat world supply shows that it increases by about 0.35 million ton during the period 2013-2017. Expected demand for world wheat will also increase at 133.3 million ton a year during the above period. At will saech minimum, 2471.9 million ton in 2013 and its maximum 3005 million ton in 2017. As for future wheat exports, the study show that it will increase by about 2.8 million ton during the period 2013-2017. Import on the other hand will also increase by 3.12 million ton in the same period real wheat price will also increase by $7.2. ________________________________________________________________________________________________


Analysis of International Trade Policies for Some Agricultural Commodities in Light of Global Changes

Howida Hassan Mohamed, 2009

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________________________________________________________________________________________________ • Ph. D. in Agricultural Science: Department of Agricultural Economics, Faculty of Agriculture, Ain Shams University, 2009. THESIS: " Effect of International Trade Liberalization on the Egyptian Agricultural Imports ". _______________________________________________________________________________________________ Foreign trade sector is one of the main pillars of economic activity in Egypt and derives its importance to this sector is closely linked to the development of the Egyptian economy and its contribution in addressing pressing national problems such as the problem of unemployment and economic recession in addition to the development of the national economy through the association with the global economy. It is the objective of the present study, in spite of the mechanisms of trade policies by the State at the local and global, not achieved the desired exports jump and the higher the value of imports, which reflects the poor economic performance, where the value of imports amounted to 152.54 billion pounds in 2007, and this poses negative impact on the Egyptian economy remains in the trade balance deficit to reach about 60.33 billion pounds during the same year. And also tended to increase agricultural imports, which amounted to some 20.58 billion pounds in 2007, which led to a rise in the agricultural trade balance, with about 13.7 billion pounds during the same year, which is reflected on the balance of business and thus the balance of payments Official and field data were collected and used to achieve study objectives. The study contains four chapters in addition to summaries, indices and references. The first section included the review of reference for studies and research in the area of the previous study. The second section has dealt with foreign trade policies of Egypt's application and effects, this section included the first two chapters single out the policies of Foreign Trade in terms of its concept, objectives and means, and the effect on the national economy. While the second chapter dealing with the implications of trade reforms on the performance of foreign trade in general, and the agricultural sector, the Egyptian foreign trade in particular. In the case of section III and the international trading system on the new policy and its implications for the total external trade and agricultural exports, This section contains two chapters dealing with the first new international trading system and its implications on the total external trade policies, while the second chapter dealing with the new international trading system and its implications on the foreign trade policies in agriculture and for the fourth section has been interested in the Egyptian foreign trade policies with a focus on the agricultural sector in the framework of agreements regional trade. ________________________________________________________________________________________________


دراسه تحليليه للعماله الزراعيه فى مصر

Sayida Amer, 2007

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The economics of new technology application in Egyptian agricultural and its effect on rural development

Wafaa Mohamed Hussin, 2007

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The study aims at achievement the flowing goals identifying the agricultural technological methods in Egypt. Its elements of transfer and its evolution


Future of Egyptian agricultural foreign trade in light of recent international economic changes

Fahmy Mohamed Madkour, 2006

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Effectiveness of export institutions for some agricultural commodities in Egypt

Ahmed Mohamed Hassanein, 2005

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The study contains on introduction and six chapters, the first chapter deals with the overview of literature, the second discusses the role of some important export institutions, the third deals with the evaluations of economic performance for some export instructions, the fourth has concentrated on the infrastructure problems, the fifth deals with economic evaluation for foreign trade and the lat one has discussed the foreign market


Effect of International Trade Liberalization on the Egyptian Agricultural Imports

Hammad Ahmed El-Said, 2005

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________________________________________________________________________________________________ • Ph. D. in Agricultural Science (Agricultural Economics), Department of Agricultural Economics, Faculty of Agriculture, Ain Shams University, 2005. THESIS: " Effect of International Trade Liberalization on the Egyptian Agricultural Imports ". _______________________________________________________________________________________________ The study investigates the problem of the increased gap between domestic production and consumption of many agricultural commodities, especially the consumable ones, which is covered by imports that require plenty of hard currencies, resulting in an increased burden on the balance of trade due to the increased value of agricultural imports as a result of abolishing the direct subsidies to agricultural production in the WTO member countries, which resulted in higher prices of domestic agricultural products. The study aims at identifying the impact of international trade liberalization on Egypt's imports of agricultural products in an attempt to predict the possibility of reducing these imports. The study findings revealed that the total value of Egyptian imports and exports have been increasing at annual rates that reached 8.3% and 9.9% respectively during the period 1987-2003. It also revealed that the liberalization of exchange rate had no impact on the most important variables affecting the Balance of Trade. However, it has positively affected the total value of exports. Moreover, the implementation of the GATT was found to be of positive impact on Egypt's balance of trade where the values of imports and exports increased by 125% and 133% respectively during the period 1995-2003, in which the GATT has been implemented (post-implementation period) compared to the pre-implementation period. Furthermore, the study revealed that the share of agricultural imports in total imports has been increasing at an annual rate of 20.8, while the share of agricultural exports in the total exports has been fluctuating around 15%. In addition, it revealed that the deficit in the balance of trade has been increasing at an annual rate of 10.4% during the period 1987-2003. The study also found that the liberalization of exchange rate has positively influenced each of the value of agricultural exports, the coverage rate of agricultural imports by agricultural exports, and the average propensity to import. However, the deficit in the balance of agricultural trade during the post-implementation period has increased by 172% compared to the pre-implementation period. The study measured the gap between domestic production and consumption of the main imported crops, which involved wheat and wheat flour, yellow maize, red meat, vegetable oils, and sugar during the period 1987-2003. It was found that the size this gap has been shrinking for wheat, yellow maize, red meat, and sugar, while fluctuated in case of vegetable oils. Through investigating the most important variables affecting the production and consumption of these crops, the study predicted the possibility of achieving self-sufficiency rates of 60%, 4%, 80.8%, 16.6%, and 87.2% for the previously mentioned crops respectively by the year 2020. Studying the most important factors affecting the imports of the studied crops during the period 1987-2003 revealed that the import price is the main variable affecting wheat imports, and that there were other non-economic factors of greater impacts on wheat imports. The study also found the import price is the main variable affecting yellow maize imports too. As regards the main variables affecting red meat imports are its domestic production and consumption, while those affecting vegetable oil imports are the domestic consumption and the exchange rate. In case of sugar, the main variables affecting its imports included its import price, domestic consumption, and the exchange rate. The study also investigated the impact of the liberalization of exchange rate and found that it had no significant impact on the value of imports of wheat, red meat, and sunflower oil, while had positive impact on the value of imports of yellow maize and soybean oil. The GATT was found to be of no influence on either the volume of wheat imports, or the market share in the world imports of this commodity. However, it was found to have a positive impact on both the value of wheat imports and its world price, the implementation of the GATT was found to have a negative impact on the volume and value of imports and share in world market of wheat flour. The implementing of the GATT was found to be of positive impacts on the volume and value of imports and the share in world market of yellow maize imports. However, its implementation resulted in increasing the world import price of yellow maize. As regards red meat imports, the GATT implementation was found to have no impact, but has positively affected its value and the world price, while negatively affected the share in the world market of red meat. The implementing of the GATT was found be of positive impacts on the volume and value of imports, the share in world market, and the world prices of soybean oil, while was fond to be of negative impact on the rate of growth in the value of these imports. However the GATT implementation was found to have no impact on sunflower oil imports, but was fond to have positive impact on the import price and value of its imports, and was fond to have a negative impact on the share in the world market of sunflower oil imports. For sugar, the implementing of the GATT was found to have positive impacts on its share in the world market of raw sugar imports, and the price and value of imports of refined sugar, but was found to have negative impacts on share in the world market of refined sugar imports. ________________________________________________________________________________________________


اثر انتشار التكنولوجيا المعاصرة على سمات الطبقات الاجتماعية (دراسة حالة فى قريتين بمحافظة الجيزة)

Abdallah Mohamed Farghall, 2004

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• The relation between social classes and their traits was of great concern to the scholars of social stratification. So it is to say that if the social class of an individual or a group is well defined in a certain society, then it is possible at a high degree of accuracy to infere his or their traits in this society.


Some environmental and economical that effect on export some fruit

Abeer Kamel, 2004

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Evaluation of farmer's performance in the new communities

Alaa Eldain Elshabrawy, 2003

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The problem of the study in the instability of land reclamation policies. The study aims to evaluate the technical and economic efficiency. The study contains six chapters; deals with the introduction, problem of the study, second chapter deals with the evaluation of land reclamation policies.


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